Who Should Start a Company: That Irrational Confidence
Who is cut out for entrepreneurship? Lei Jun's answer starts with a joke: 「Starting a business is not something for normal people — it's for the crazy ones.」 This lesson covers the three capabilities every founder needs, and what kept him going when Kingsoft was on the brink in 1996.
“Starting a company is not something for normal people — it's for the crazy ones. So most people, frankly, had better not.” Behind this joke is Lei Jun's real conviction: what matters most is not capability, but whether you have the resolve and courage to do it. Without those two things, nothing else matters.
After resolve, Lei Jun listed three essential capabilities — and specifically emphasized: the hardest of the three is the last one.
Courage to Face Adversity
Setbacks are the norm in entrepreneurship. Getting beaten by competitors, losing teammates, running out of money — all of this will happen. Courage is a consumable resource.
Ability to Paint a Vision
You need to be able to articulate clearly where you're going and why it matters. The vision is not a pitch deck for investors — it's the only fuel your team has when things get hard.
Ability to Rally People Behind a Dream
In Lei Jun's own words: 「The hardest part is whether you can gather a big group of people to pursue your dream and ambition.」 You believing alone is not enough — you need a crowd to believe with you.
Check off each item you genuinely have against Lei Jun's criteria. The assessment below updates in real time with Lei Jun–style commentary. Answer honestly — there is no correct answer, only a truthful one.
In its early days, Kingsoft developed WPS — a product that was extremely well-suited to the market and well-loved by users. 「Kingsoft became a success overnight.」 Then Microsoft entered China: their software was unencrypted, and piracy spread it at incredible speed.
Soon, Kingsoft found itself squeezed between Microsoft and rampant piracy. Lei Jun said the hardest things in that crisis were two: convincing yourself it was still worth fighting for, and convincing every colleague that there was still hope.
Below are the cards each side held in 1996. Assess the gap in strength clearly, then click the card to flip it and see how Lei Jun solved what logic said was unsolvable.
Kingsoft
- Based in China, roughly ten people, a handful of resources
- About ¥100,000 in the bank
- Flagship product WPS being eroded by piracy
Microsoft
- The undisputed global software giant of the era
- Unencrypted software — used piracy to capture market at blazing speed
- Crushing advantage in capital, talent, and ecosystem
By logic, there was no way to win
Lei Jun looking back: 「When I think back sixteen years, I have no idea how I managed to believe Kingsoft could beat Microsoft. Sometimes logic simply cannot explain why you think you can win.」 Sixteen years later, WPS had made great strides, but was still nowhere near "beating" Microsoft. 「But that doesn't change the fact that I believed I could win back then. If in 1996 I hadn't believed I could win, what chance would I have had of making it to today?」 Logic says you're guaranteed to lose — so the only thing that keeps you at the table is faith.
Click again to flip back
Click the card to flip →
Convincing yourself is only step one. Step two is convincing everyone around you. Lei Jun described the negative spiral he personally lived through:
“Entrepreneurship actually requires faith. You must first believe this thing can happen — only then do you have enough confidence to convince the people working alongside you.” Lei Jun called this “irrational confidence”: if you're not confident, there's absolutely no chance. Faith isn't a performance for outsiders — it's the only thing that stops the spiral from accelerating.
A solo company has no colleagues to convince — the entire negative spiral happens inside your own head. Kingsoft's spiral was key people quitting one after another; the indie developer version is: three months after launch with no paying users → start doubting the direction → update frequency drops → metrics get worse.
Lei Jun's solution applies equally: convince yourself first that this is worth doing — and do it when the metrics look worst.
- Organizing Capability: 「Rallying a group of people」 now means orchestrating a team of Agents: translate the vision into clear PRDs and rules so that Cursor, contractors, and collaborators all move in the same direction even without your constant supervision.
- Irrational Confidence: Kingsoft vs. Microsoft was a battle logic said was unwinnable. A solo founder vs. a well-staffed competitor is the same. Logic helps you choose the battlefield — but what keeps you on it has never been logic.
Resolve and Courage Come First: Without these two, nothing else is worth discussing.
Three Capabilities: Courage to face adversity, ability to paint a vision, ability to rally people behind a dream. The hardest is the third.
Survive the Spiral with "Irrational Confidence": When logic says you're certain to lose, it's the only thing that keeps you at the table.
Entrepreneurship Requires Faith: You must believe first before you can make anyone else believe.
Source: Compiled from Lei Jun's public entrepreneurship lectures